700 billion dollars… yes, 700 billion dollars! Wow, say that out loud and it makes the impact of this number even more difficult to swallow. Tonight Washington is scheduled to vote on a rescue plan for the second time this week. It is widely assumed this vote will be successful and by the beginning of next week we will have a rescue plan passed into law. Why is it so important that government acts so swiftly to remedy this situation? I am going to try and briefly analyze a few of the reasons an everyday person, with not much education about the economy, needs to understand about this government intervention. I could write a book on all the reasons why we find ourselves in this situation, but that is not the goal of this posting. If anyone has specific questions or would like to discuss what happened to put us in this position feel free to call me and I would be happy to discuss!
The main reason why the bill failed to pass the first time it was introduced is purely because of politics. Most House Republicans are from the old school of Chicago Economics where the belief is a free market with little to no government intervention will always correct itself. These representatives wanted to make a point with their vote. By showing their constituents they will not vote for a bill basically introducing socialism into our economy, this will allow them to run numerous advertisements for their campaign next time they are up for election showing how they stayed true to their free market American principles. It makes me sick that these politicians put politics before the best interest of their country. Nobody is excited about this bill, nobody wants to saddle taxpayers with a possible 700 billion dollar debt, nobody wants to inject socialist principles into the economy, but if we don’t do something the consequences could be catastrophic. What is the price we would pay by allowing the economy to correct itself on its own? Bank after bank would fail, credit limits would be slashed and taken away, the value of the dollar would plummet at racing speeds, and the costs of everyday living would increase significantly. Let’s explore what is currently happening in the market right now.
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Credit Markets are Frozen – The cost for a bank to borrow money from another bank is the highest it has ever been. Last time I checked it would cost a bank just below 7% to borrow money at an overnight rate. Banks need to be able to borrow money from one another in order to inject credit (loans) into the market place. We have created a society dependent on credit because individuals, families, and businesses live and operate beyond our means. If a business cannot use their line(s) of credit to purchase inventory, pay bills, pay their employees, and otherwise operate on a daily basis they will shut down within a couple of months. With credit being unavailable it will also lead to competitive businesses not being able to expand and grow their business, expansion would promote and create new jobs for the growing amount of unemployed Americans. The reason banks cannot borrow money and lend money is because there is currently too much bad debt on their books from all the bad loans they have written over the past 8 to 10 years. The rescue plan is designed to purchase all the bad debt from these banks and free up their balance sheets and allow them to function on a normal basis once again.
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Credit Limits Get Slashed – Credit has been far too accessible in the United States for a long time now. With the accessibility of credit it has led to irresponsibility with credit. Since the credit markets are frozen and short term lending is at a standstill, we can probably expect many consumers lines of credit will be decreased in an attempt to try and control the availability of credit in the economy. Think of how this might affect a business or a family juggling their bills from month to month. The rescue plan does not specifically focus on buying bad debt from credit card companies, but hopefully the passing of this bill will help free up credit availability in this sector of the market. However, I can guarantee we will see a dramatic change for the next 10 years regarding the requirements of being approved for a credit card, home equity line of credit, auto loan, college loan, or any other form of short term financing.
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Foreign Confidence in America – America has been the promise land for longer than any of us have been here, right now foreign investors are seriously doubting the strength of our economy. Like it or not, we live in a global economy and the strength of our economic system and currency is directly responsible for the amount of capital other countries are willing to invest in our system. Due to all the irresponsible loans we sold foreign investors we are in a position where America is perceived as we have lied to them. We lied about the value of properties, we lied about standards used to approve a borrower, we lied about the integrity of the insurance agencies grading the lenders approving the loans, and in turn these foreign (and national) investors lost a lot of money. Economists know that if the banking system fails their investment strategy in our country will shift dramatically. For the past countless years’ foreign investors have been investing money in our country to help our economy grow and expand. If a rescue bill does not go through their investment strategy changes to one of a fire sale. Either they will unload as much debt as they can, or they will come in and buy as much as they can at ridiculously low prices. The only “company” that has the time and patience to hold these bad assets is the American government. The government, through taxpayer dollars, will be able to hold bad debt, help homeowners stay in their homes, and most importantly restore confidence into the economy. Let’s look at how the rescue plan will work as it is currently drawn.
Of the 700 billion dollars only 250 billion will be used immediately to purchase bad debt from banks. This bad debt is placed in a fund they are calling a TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program). This is basically a big fund where different assets within the TARP can be traded in the market. From what I have heard over the past few weeks, analysts are estimating only 100 to 200 billion dollars of these assets are currently at risk of defaulting or have already defaulted. The most important part of this bill is the fact there will be tremendous oversight of the people instituting these policies, and there will be accountability for anyone who is found not acting in the best interest of taxpayers. Executives of companies who have bad debt purchased by the government will be capped on the amount of compensation limits received if and when their institution fails. Finally, if any portion of the TARP is profitable and sold within the market, taxpayers will receive a portion of the profits through warrants. Warrants are like stock options without having any voting authority.
Getting the bad debt off the bank’s balance sheets is crucial for the economy to be able to breathe. Right now the economy is being squeezed from every side imaginable and times are a bit scary. Once this bill passes it will allow us to collectively take a deep breath, but don’t get too excited because there is still much work ahead of us. We need to change the way we think about money, the last 8 to 16 years have been sponsored by unregulated economic policies and the party is over! In the end we all need to learn from this crisis, coming this close to utter disaster will hopefully allow us time to correct our mistakes and move forward with proper economic fundamentals and responsibility.